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Cb05b17

Results Edit

Poll2082

Thursday, August 4th, 2005

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Poll 2082
Division Flood Division
Match # 17
Match Date Thursday, August 4th, 2005
Vote difference 35,576
Oracle
Expectations
Master Chief - 76.31%
96 for - 0 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Master Chief - 92.20%
(31,157 brackets)

Master Chief has got to be the least transitive character ever.

On a related note, while I'm not an advocate of pictures making a difference, CATS is a different story.

http://www.planettribes.com/allyourbase/AYB2.swf

Watch the video, then compare how long you see Eggplant CATS as opposed to Face CATS. It's no comparison, and Face CATS is quite clearly more recognizable. Given how many times that video has been seen, I don't get how one could assume that it wouldn't make a big difference in a match here on GF.

Three times CATS has gotten an Eggplant pic, and three times the stats have seen him as complete fodder. When he got the face pic in Spring 2005, he placed in the top half of the field.

Against Master Chief, he got the face pic that everyone knows and loves. Granted this wasn't going to do something as insane as allow him to win the match, but it allowed him to overperform based on past stats for the second contest in a row. Summer 2004 has CATS scoring around 20% on Master Chief.

But Master Chief is overrated in those stats, so everyone went and looked at 2003 for more reliable numbers. According to them, CATS scores just under 26%. Makes enough sense, and the average Oracle pick of Chief with 76.31% reflects this expectation quite nicely.

And then the match started. CATS took the early lead as expected, and Chief took it back as expected. However, what people didn't expect was CATS holding strong in the upper 30% range for a good while after the board vote wore off. No big deal, right? Chief being the absolute king of the day vote would come through and help him flatten CATS despite only having 63.72% of the vote after six hours of the match were past.

Seriously, what does CATS need to do to prove that he has legitimate strength in these contests and can win a match given the right opponent? Better yet, what does he need to do to prove that the face pic makes a difference? Between hours 6 and 12 in the match, Master Chief increased his percentage to 68%. However, during the next twelve hours of the poll (the timeframe he used to KILL Frog), he was only able to increase his percentage to what you see above. And while CATS did allow Master Chief to go insane for six hours, he still performed well above where most people had him pinned. I can't wait for the day in which CATS is given a match against a character lower than him in the stats and is given a face pic in the match.

On another note, this pretty much proved that Master Chief was the weakest and/or the most undeserving 1 seed in the contest. Not only did CATS overperform on him, but this is post-Halo 2 Master Chief we're talking about here. Very disappointing match for him.

Match Trends Edit

Graph2082

External Links Edit

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2005 Summer Contest Matches

Round One
Mario > Joanna
Ness > CJ
Zero > Ryu H
Lloyd > Wesker
Samus > Yuri
Frog > Riku
Ganondorf > Yuna
Auron > Big Boss
Snake > Manny
Zelda > Vivi
Alucard > Kratos
Sora > Agent 47
Kirby > Cecil
Tidus > King
Bowser > Chun Li

Ryu > Rikku
Master Chief > CATS
Donkey Kong > Sam Fisher
Vercetti > Kefka
Crono > Zidane
Dante > Terra
Vincent > Kerrigan
Knuckles > Magus
Squall > Geno
Sonic > Jin Kazama
Diablo > Kratos Aurion
Tifa > Vyse
Luigi > KOS-MOS
Mega Man > Conker
Leon > Gordon
Yoshi > Laharl
Pac-Man > Ocelot

Round Two
Mario > Ness
Zero > Lloyd
Samus > Frog
Ganondorf > Auron
Snake > Zelda
Sora > Alucard
Kirby > Tidus
Bowser > Ryu
Master Chief > DK
Crono > Vercetti
Vincent > Dante
Squall > Knuckles
Sonic > Diablo
Tifa > Luigi
Mega Man > Leon
Yoshi > Pac-Man

R3 and following
Mario > Zero
Samus > Ganondorf
Snake > Sora
Bowser > Kirby
Crono > Master Chief
Vincent > Squall
Sonic > Tifa
Mega Man > Yoshi
Mario > Samus
Snake > Bowser
Crono > Vincent
Mega Man > Sonic
Mario > Snake
Crono > Mega Man
Mario > Crono (Finals)


Tournament of
Champions

Link > Cloud

Sephiroth > Mario

Link > Sephiroth

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