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Cb05b59

Results Edit

Poll2124

Thursday, September 15th, 2005

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Poll 2124
Round Tournament Quarter Final
Match # 59
Match Date Thursday, September 15th, 2005
Vote difference 10,268
Oracle
Expectations
Crono - 57.67%
67 for - 2 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Crono - 31.17%
(10,533 brackets)

Of the four matches that took place in this round, this match was the only one that wasn't interesting in build-up. But once the match got going, a couple of things went on that at least raised a couple of eyebrows.

In the 2004 stats, Squall is projected to get something like 40% on Crono. Yet in this match, despite Vincent being for all intents and purposes even with Squall, Vincent went over Squall's projection by 5%. Not that Crono did so badly early on, because as the match began he had well over 65% of the vote. Unfortunately, once the bracket/board voting died down Crono's percentage began to spiral downward. Crono going down in percentage is typical of pretty much every match involving Chrono Trigger, but the catch in this match was that Vincent put Crono down to having just over 55% of the vote within three and a half hours. From that point on, Vincent found himself involved in another freakishly consistent match that saw he and Crono stuck on virtually the same percentage for the latter 20 hours of the match.

While Crono winning seemed like a lock, it's tough to deny that Vincent overperformed here. Either he scored a lot of rSFF due to the whole New Square:Old Square theory, or Advent Children made a huge difference for Vincent between his match with Squall and his match with Crono. It's not like Vincent overperformed on just anyone, either; this was sprite Crono, and for whatever reason CT characters all go SSJ when given sprites in match pictures.

So either rSFF due to New-Old or Advent Children taking its course. I think that's fairly reasonable, especially given how well Cloud and Sephy would do later on. The issue that this caused however was a large debate on how to adjust the Devil Division in the final stats (or at all), because as we all know the stats have to look as perfect as possible.

Match Trends Edit

Graph2124

External Links Edit

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2005 Summer Contest Matches

Round One
Mario > Joanna
Ness > CJ
Zero > Ryu H
Lloyd > Wesker
Samus > Yuri
Frog > Riku
Ganondorf > Yuna
Auron > Big Boss
Snake > Manny
Zelda > Vivi
Alucard > Kratos
Sora > Agent 47
Kirby > Cecil
Tidus > King
Bowser > Chun Li

Ryu > Rikku
Master Chief > CATS
Donkey Kong > Sam Fisher
Vercetti > Kefka
Crono > Zidane
Dante > Terra
Vincent > Kerrigan
Knuckles > Magus
Squall > Geno
Sonic > Jin Kazama
Diablo > Kratos Aurion
Tifa > Vyse
Luigi > KOS-MOS
Mega Man > Conker
Leon > Gordon
Yoshi > Laharl
Pac-Man > Ocelot

Round Two
Mario > Ness
Zero > Lloyd
Samus > Frog
Ganondorf > Auron
Snake > Zelda
Sora > Alucard
Kirby > Tidus
Bowser > Ryu
Master Chief > DK
Crono > Vercetti
Vincent > Dante
Squall > Knuckles
Sonic > Diablo
Tifa > Luigi
Mega Man > Leon
Yoshi > Pac-Man

R3 and following
Mario > Zero
Samus > Ganondorf
Snake > Sora
Bowser > Kirby
Crono > Master Chief
Vincent > Squall
Sonic > Tifa
Mega Man > Yoshi
Mario > Samus
Snake > Bowser
Crono > Vincent
Mega Man > Sonic
Mario > Snake
Crono > Mega Man
Mario > Crono (Finals)


Tournament of
Champions

Link > Cloud

Sephiroth > Mario

Link > Sephiroth

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