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Results Edit

Round One

Poll6106
Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Most 2 seeds go out there and dominate some fodder en route to an easy contest win or two. Resident Evil 4 did not do that, though admittedly Paper Mario is not a normal 15 seed. Resident Evil 4 lost the board vote, then had to do a lot of recovering to get this thing close to 60%. It would be a clear warning sign of what was coming later, though a lot of people were in denial about it.

In looking at this match, I noticed a pretty neat parallel. It depends on how close you think Paper Mario and Thousand-Year Door are in strength, but it's definitely there.

In Game of the Decade, Thousand-Year Door got 44.83% on Oblivion: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/4164-northwest-division-round-2-paper-mario-tyd-vs-oblivion

In 2015, Super Mario RPG would end up getting 54.43% on Oblivion: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/6100-best-game-ever-day-13-oblivion-vs-super-mario-rpg

If you assume a constant Oblivion, that's an increase of 9.6%.

In this match, Paper Mario got 41.13% on Resident Evil 4. If you add 9.6% to that, you get... 50.73%. Hmmmmmmmmm........

Warning signs were definitely there with Resident Evil 4, though after round 1 the excuse of "we can't compare Paper Mario and TTYD this closely" was there. That excuse wouldn't stay there for long, but denying some relationship between SMRPG, Paper Mario and Thousand-Year Door would be a bit silly.

I know the stats topic is known for projecting things a little too far, but it was definitely warranted in this case! Resident Evil 4, right from the first match, looked "off".

Ctes's Analysis Edit

This match feels like such a waste. Last time Paper Mario got the honor of embarrassing our casuals through World of Warcraft. This time, it gets to look at it from the wrong side of the division as Chrono Cross gets the fun. Resident Evil 4 is a league above it, it was never going to win this match and everybody knew it too. Paper Mario: TTYD was in the tougher half of the bracket and won a match, Paper Mario really got unfortunate here and it's due to seeding. Last time, Paper Mario was a #5 seed, it feel quite a bit to get a #15 seed. Just for comparison, TTYD fell from a #7 seed to a #8 seed which is honestly really great considering that last contest had a field from only a decade. But with that seeding Paper Mario wouldn't have much a chance anywhere.

It's a shame to see it fall, but I do appreciate TTYD coming through as the better looking Paper Mario here. The first Paper Mario is really darn good, really fun experience that I could play through over and over again despite a few flaws. TTYD fixed the few things, introduced a new story and created perfection. Seriously, so few games are that. It's a top 3 game for me and my favorite Nintendo game. Paper Mario advanced further than it last time, but this time they had the order I would prefer. This match lines up really well with GotD, which is nice for a match that wouldn't be interesting either way.

But the weird thing is that Resident Evil 4 ends up looking a lot worse than it did in GotD. You can explain that through how the series went afterward as well as it being somewhat recent, but then why has Paper Mario fallen accordingly? It's a N64 game, it's still well-liked and despite it not being N64 as most thought, the rest of the N64 games did good. We thought Paper Mario did too, but it ends up looking so bad. If fans now vastly prefer TTYD then perhaps that could be a reason for Paper Mario falling a little bit, but it's still not enough to explain this really. The difference shouldn't be that much, so perhaps Super Mario RPG gained a lot more momentum that we thought from reaching the division finals. It was predicted by board 8, but I guess Super Mario RPG coming out of that eight pack of casual bait, would be a shock to those casuals.

External Links Edit

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2015 Contest Matches

Round One
CT > R&C:UYA
DQVIII > P3
MMX > Batman:AC
FFX > HL1
Melee > Portal
Pokemon GSC > TWEWY
KHII > MGS4
TLoU > Halo 3
FFVI > ACII
TTYD > ToS
KotOR > Xenogears
Zelda:WW > Pokemon X/Y
Smash Wii U > Planescape
ME > SMG2
Halo > Minecraft
FFVII > Journey
SMB3 > AoE2
Pokemon RBY > Tetris
Sonic 2 > Portal 2
Uncharted 2 > Walking Dead
Fallout 3 > Life is Strange
Undertale > ME3
FFVIII > GTA:VC
SMW > AC:NL
Skyrim > PW:AA
GE007 > Diablo II
Metroid Prime > Morrowind
HL2 > Demon's Souls
Mario 64 > MK8
FFT > RE2
Zelda:TP > SoA
Persona 4 > 999

Zelda:OoT > Hearthstone
Suikoden II > MH4U
Okami > Warcraft III
FFIX > KH1
DKC2 > Xenoblade
FE:A > Mario Maker
BK > Baldur's Gate II
SotN > PW:T&T
Zelda:LttP > Cave Story
FFIV > Deus Ex
MGSV > Perfect Dark
Dark Souls > Civ V
Super Metroid > CoD4
Mario Galaxy > DA:O
FFXII > Bloodborne
Zelda:MM > Valkyria
GTAV > Shenmue
SMRPG > Oblivion
GTA:SA > Shovel Knight
CC > WoW
Witcher 3 > Isaac: Rebirth
MGS2 > RE
Fallout:NV > BioShock Inf
RE4 > Paper Mario
MGS > Splatoon
EB > Borderlands 2
SotC > TF2
RDR > Bayonetta 2
MGS3 > Mother 3
BioShock > SH2
Starcraft > Destiny
ME2 > VLR

Round Two
CT > DQVIII
FFX > MMX
Melee > Pokemon GSC
KHII > TLoU
FFVI > TTYD
Zelda:WW > KotOR
Smash Wii U > ME
FFVII > Halo
Pokemon RBY > SMB3
Sonic 2 > Uncharted 2
Undertale > Fallout 3
SMW > FFVIII
Skyrim > GE007
Metroid Prime > HL2
Mario 64 > FFT
Zelda:TP > Persona 4
Zelda:OoT > Suikoden II
FFIX> Okami
DKC2 > FE:A
SotN > BK
Zelda:LttP > FFIV
Dark Souls > MGSV
Super Metroid > SMG
Zelda:MM > FFXII
SMRPG > GTAV
CC> GTA:SA
MGS2 > Witcher 3
RE4 > Fallout:NV
MGS > EB
SotC > RDR
MGS3 > Bioshock
ME2 > Starcraft

R3 and following
CT > FFX
Melee > KHII
FFVI > Zelda:WW
FFVII > Smash Wii U
Pokemon RBY > Sonic 2
Undertale > SMW
Skyrim > Metroid Prime
Mario 64 > Zelda:TP
Zelda:OoT > FFIX
SotN > DKC2
Zelda:LttP > Dark Souls
Zelda:MM > Super Metroid
SMRPG > CC
RE4 > MGS2
MGS > SotC
MGS3 > ME2
Melee > CT
FFVII > FFVI
Undertale > Pokemon RBY
Mario 64 > Skyrim
OoT > SotN
Zelda:LttP > Zelda:MM
SMRPG > RE4
MGS3 > MGS
Melee > FFVII
Undertale > Mario 64
Zelda:OoT > Zelda:LttP
SMRPG > MGS3
Undertale > Melee
Zelda:OoT > SMRPG
Undertale > Zelda:OoT



Melee > SMRPG

Grudge Matches
CT > FFVI
Pokemon RBY > Mario 64


Zelda:OoT > FFVII