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Cb05b48

Results[]

Poll2113

Sunday, September 4th, 2005

Ulti's Analysis[]

Poll 2113
Round 20XX Division Semi Final
Match # 48
Match Date Sunday, September 4th, 2005
Vote difference 38,484
Oracle
Expectations
Yoshi - 66.05%
80 for - 0 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Yoshi - 47.07%
(15,906 brackets)

One barely needs to analyse this match to assume why it happened the way it did. The only thing Yoshi really needed to worry about to avoid being embarrassed was to outdo Luigi's performance on Pac Man last year, and some people were actually fearing that Yoshi would not be able to pull it off for whatever reason. Something about Luigi's true strength having always been hidden and Yoshi rSFFing him in 2004 or some such nonsense. On another note, this was one of the most consistent (see also: boring) matches of all time. Yoshi's highest percentage caught by the updater was 73.26%, and his lowest 69.77%. I'm not sure if this small range is a record, but maybe someone like TRE feels like wasting the free time to confirm <_<

I do however wonder about the casual bracketmaker sometimes. There are cases where they whip the board's ass (Tidus/Shadow, Magus/Knuckles, and Mario's 2005 run just to name a few good cases), yet there are matches like this in which you just have to scratch your head. Yoshi was a lock to win this fourpack, yet despite him likely being the bracket favorite less than half had him advancing this far. It doesn't make any sense, and I only have two assumptions to explain it.

While the X-Stats may be more mainstream than we think, casuals love to pick based on seeding. The ultimate example of this is Halo, though I'm sure there are plenty of others. Ridley, Kuja, and virtually every 3 seed bust are perfect examples of casual overestimation, and it's funny given how good they are at exposing the board every now and then. Kirby > Tidus is another great example.

After Pac Man's hilarious upset of Ocelot, his reward was to prove that Yoshi was in fact stronger than Luigi and that there was no rSFF in the 2004 match between the two. And if there was, it did little more than cause Luigi to overperform. Though if you glance over at the stats for this contest, look who is ahead of who. Hmmm.

Maybe there was indeed rSFF in that match, who knows.

Match Trends[]

Graph2113

External Links[]

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2005 Summer Contest Matches

Round One
Mario > Joanna
Ness > CJ
Zero > Ryu H
Lloyd > Wesker
Samus > Yuri
Frog > Riku
Ganondorf > Yuna
Auron > Big Boss
Snake > Manny
Zelda > Vivi
Alucard > Kratos
Sora > Agent 47
Kirby > Cecil
Tidus > King
Bowser > Chun Li

Ryu > Rikku
Master Chief > CATS
Donkey Kong > Sam Fisher
Vercetti > Kefka
Crono > Zidane
Dante > Terra
Vincent > Kerrigan
Knuckles > Magus
Squall > Geno
Sonic > Jin Kazama
Diablo > Kratos Aurion
Tifa > Vyse
Luigi > KOS-MOS
Mega Man > Conker
Leon > Gordon
Yoshi > Laharl
Pac-Man > Ocelot

Round Two
Mario > Ness
Zero > Lloyd
Samus > Frog
Ganondorf > Auron
Snake > Zelda
Sora > Alucard
Kirby > Tidus
Bowser > Ryu
Master Chief > DK
Crono > Vercetti
Vincent > Dante
Squall > Knuckles
Sonic > Diablo
Tifa > Luigi
Mega Man > Leon
Yoshi > Pac-Man

R3 and following
Mario > Zero
Samus > Ganondorf
Snake > Sora
Bowser > Kirby
Crono > Master Chief
Vincent > Squall
Sonic > Tifa
Mega Man > Yoshi
Mario > Samus
Snake > Bowser
Crono > Vincent
Mega Man > Sonic
Mario > Snake
Crono > Mega Man
Mario > Crono (Finals)


Tournament of
Champions

Link > Cloud

Sephiroth > Mario

Link > Sephiroth

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