Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | Blast Division |
|---|---|
| Match # | 26 |
| Match Date | Saturday, October 7th, 2006 |
| Vote difference | 6,636 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Vincent - 49.32% 64 for - 67 against |
| GameFAQs Prediction |
Vincent - 39.40% (16,803 brackets) |
This was a WIDELY debated first round match, and the fact that this thing meant as many points as Ada vs Jade should be criminal -- HM's stupid account bet with Sir Chris be damned.
The basic idea was Ganondorf's pedigree against Vincent's overwhelming intangibles. The two are close in the stats and Vincent had a ton going for him going into the match, but 40% on Sephiroth and being from the Zelda series is difficult to overlook. As was Link's recent dominance of Cloud, paired with Zelda being the big favorite against Aeris. Picking Vincent over Ganon here was a major going against the grain.
Though with all that said, perfect time to repaste this old analysis of mine:
From UltimaterializerX Posted 9/17/2006 3:28:16 AM #049
I was bored:
Auron scored 45.95 on Ganondorf. Dante scored 45.99% on Vincent.
33.02% ; that's Auron's BL value if you take his 2005 match with Ganondorf and plug him into the Villain Contest. Dante's BL value from last summer is 32.73%.
(32.73 / 33.02) * 50 = 49.56% is what Dante supposedly scores on Auron, but these two are only even if you assume the villain's contest is accurate.
Basically, Ganondorf being favored against Vincent is based off of warped stats from when everyone thought Magus 2003 was legit, and a villain's contest in which Sephiroth was anti-voted to hell and back in the last two rounds. Is Ganon really that close to Mario of his own accord?
If Ganon is overrated at ALL by our stats (and he is; none of the high readings we have on him are valid), Vincent might win that match in an easier fashion that people expect. Vincent might be overrated a bit due to FF7 > CT SFF, but if he pulled 44.62% on Crono due to Advent Children then his value is kind of accurate by accident. And he's had his own game since last year. And he might even see some KH2F go his way.
Barring NintendoFAQs showing its muscle again (a real possibility, of course), I really think Vincent might be due to surprise some people in a couple of weeks.
Remember the Ganon/Tidus/Magus trio of 2003? Magus and Tidus have since bombed, and Ganon's inevitable coming down to earth was only being delayed because we're on ZeldaFAQs. What Vincent did in 2005 paired with everything he's had going for him since, paired with Ganon's being overrated made Vincent the favorite in my eyes. Not to mention the whole FF7 thing. Barring massive ZeldaFAQs slash bracket voting favoritism, I really felt like Vincent could win this match easily.
Which is a theory that got a huge monkey wrench thrown into it early on in the match, because Ganon jumped out to a 130 vote lead within ten minutes. Vincent quickly recovered however, and the match was even ten minutes later. The two went back and forth like this in near dead-even fashion for quite awhile, but Vincent began to make his move once the night vote began to settle in. In between 1:30 and 2, Vincent increased his lead from 15 to 114.
Ganon was never in the match again. Vincent went on to build a sizeable lead for himself through the night, and the best Ganon was able to do during the famous Zelda day vote was stall Vincent's lead increase every so often. In the end, the only thing that put this match into any question early was an early Ganondorf push from bracket voting (low prediction percentage as evidence) and Zelda fans that stayed up late. This phenomenon of Nintendo doing drastically better in the first hour or so compared to the rest of the night would be dubbed the Nintendo Power Hour by tranny later on in the contest.
On top of Ganondorf losing in the first round for I believe the first time ever, the massive Vincent > Sonic bandwagon began not one second afterwards. This board is pretty sad in how desperate it is to see the Noble Nine break; Ganon was high in the stats based on warped circumstance, so naturally the statheads have to hype Vincent as being bigger than said warped stats in an effort to validate faulty logic. Vincent is good, but he's not that good. Yet. He does have the potential if he makes it into a future Kingdom Hearts title, though.
Match Trends[]
