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Sum02b38

Results Edit

Poll977

Wednesday, August 7th, 2002

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Poll 977
Division East Division
Match # 38
Match Date Wednesday, August 7th, 2002
Vote difference 21,884
GameFAQs
Prediction
Crono - 51.77%
(8,679 brackets)

After the events of the first round, this match was supposed to be a knock down, drag-out affair. Both characters had similar prediction percentages of getting out of the first round (83.88% and 81.69%, respectively), both characters had similar odds of winning the contest, and both characters had eerily similar victories in the first round. But because this was before the dawn of extrapolated standings, few people bothered to take into effect the fact that Simon Belmont was likely far stronger than Q*Bert. All we had back then were the raw numbers from two matches, and those numbers lead to some serious hype surrounding Crono vs Dante. Even Solarshadow himself postulated that this could very well be the best match of the second round.

However, not only did Crono manage to win this match with ease, he managed to nearly double Dante in the process. What was once a hyped match turned into a complete dud that few people expected, as evidenced by Crono's somewhat low prediction percentage in this match. Chrono Trigger was still a very niche title on many parts of the site, so those who had not yet seen Crono or his game would have likely gone with the more mainstream character from the more mainstream game. But like many times before in this contest, GameFAQs is partial to Square RPGs and Nintendo elites. Dante doesn't fall in either of those categories, and is therefore not liked nearly enough to put any real dent in the likes of Crono.

Another thing that this match did was show that Lara Croft was in a world of trouble come the next round. If you compare Crono and Dante's first round scores, they're rather similar, but after Crono/Dante it was easy to see that Dante did as well as he did because he was facing Q*Bert, a complete scrub, while Crono was going up against a more respectable Simon Belmont. For Dante to do as well as Crono did against Simon Belmont, he would have needed to face a weaker opponent than Belmont. What this means is that in two Divisional Quarterfinal matches in the East Division, we saw Lara Croft allow Ryo Hazuki to break 40% on her, while Crono nearly doubled Dante. It's hard to imagine Dante being weaker than Hazuki, and if transitivity held at any level in the Lara/Crono match, then one could easily call Crono the favorite and Lara Croft as being the first 1 seed in danger of being booted from the contest.

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2002 Contest Matches

Round One
Mario > Servbot
Morrigan > Spyro
Aya > Terry Bogard
Donkey Kong > Bub
Alucard > Tails
Duke > Iori
Pikachu > PaRappa
Cloud > Fox
Lara > Chop Chop
Ryo Hazuki > Guybrush
Crono > Simon
Dante > Q*Bert
Aeris > Kasumi
Tina > Gordon
Knuckles > Akira

Snake > Squall
Pac-Man > Goemon
Kyo > Abe
Scorpion > Kazuya
Max Payne > Dirk
Bomberman > Kane
Jill > Kirby
Strider > Raziel
Link > Little Mac
Sonic > Pitfall Harry
Tidus > Claire
Samus > Ken
Ryu > CATS
Mega Man > Ms. Pac-Man
Serious Sam > Mr. Driller
Sephiroth > Gabe
Crash > Ulala

Round Two
Mario > Morrigan
Donkey Kong > Aya
Alucard > Duke
Cloud > Pikachu
Lara > Ryo Hazuki
Crono > Dante
Aeris > Tina
Snake > Knuckles
Pac-Man > Kyo
Scorpion > Max Payne
Jill > Bomberman
Link > Strider
Sonic > Tidus
Samus > Ryu
Mega Man > Serious Sam
Sephiroth > Crash

R3 and following
Mario > Donkey Kong
Cloud > Alucard
Crono > Lara
Snake > Aeris
Scorpion > Pac-Man
Link > Jill
Samus > Sonic
Sephiroth > Mega Man
Mario > Cloud
Crono > Snake
Link > Scorpion
Sephiroth > Samus
Mario > Crono
Link > Sephiroth
Link > Mario (Finals)

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