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(8)Ganondorf vs (9)Alucard 2004

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Sum04b02

Results Edit

Poll1719

Monday, August 2nd, 2004

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Poll 1719
Division Hyrule Division
Match # 02
Match Date Monday, August 2nd, 2004
Vote difference 12,533
Oracle
Expectations
Ganondorf - 59.99%
83 for - 1 against
GameFAQs
Prediction
Ganondorf - 63.02%
(20,936 brackets)

It pleases me to see Alucard do better than he was expected to in this match. There was a small chance to see Link vs Ganondorf last year, but Magus wound up putting an end to all of that after a fierce battle with the King of Evil. This year, the trick to finally pitting Link and Ganondorf together in a poll was to vastly underseed both Ganondorf and Alucard and throw them in an 8-9 match when they should be going at it in a 3-6 match. Regardless, neither one of these characters got what they deserved from the seeding in this contest. They had a decent match that challenged the Xsts by a few percentage points, but in the end, it's fairly obvious that this match was placed where it was in the bracket so that we would be able to see a Link vs Ganondorf affair. I personally don't like that idea all that much, because while such a match could look good on paper, people who analyse a lot of contest data know that Same Fanbase Factor matchups (SFF, for short) usually yield blowouts to the highest degree, and even SFF matches that are hard to call are rarely close enough to be exciting after the first couple of hours in the poll.

Both Alucard and Ganondorf did well in their time in the sun, but with Link looming right above their heads, it was all for naught. The thing that really stands out here is the prediction percentage. As powerful as the Zelda franchise is, it is clear that people looked at past results (and Alucard's two Sweet 16 appearances) when deciding who to go with in this match.

Match Trends Edit

Graph1719

External Links Edit

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2004 Summer Contest Matches

Round One
Link > CATS
Ganondorf > Alucard
Yoshi > Ryo Hazuki
Luigi > Pac-Man
Magus > Luca Blight
Crono > Conker
Bowser > Guybrush
Mario > JC Denton
Mega Man > Earthworm Jim
Tidus > Shadow
Vercetti > Max Payne
Zero > Protoman
Frog > Liquid
Master Chief > Crash
Knuckles > Kefka

Snake > Tanner
Cloud > Duke
Vyse > Laharl
Kirby > Kain
Squall > Bomberman
Ness > Jak
Auron > Scorpion
Vivi > Donkey Kong
Sephiroth > Sly Cooper
Sonic > Terry Bogard
Ryu > KOS-MOS
Tails > VJ
Dante > Ratchet
Sora > HK-47
Ryu H > Jill
Sam Fisher > Gordon
Samus > Lara

Round Two
Link > Ganondorf
Yoshi > Luigi
Crono > Magus
Mario > Bowser
Mega Man > Tidus
Zero > Vercetti
Frog > Master Chief
Snake > Knuckles
Cloud > Vyse
Squall > Kirby
Auron > Ness
Sephiroth > Vivi
Sonic > Ryu
Dante > Tails
Sora > Ryu H
Samus > Sam Fisher

R3 and following
Link > Yoshi
Crono > Mario
Mega Man > Zero
Snake > Frog
Cloud > Squall
Sephiroth > Auron
Sonic > Dante
Samus > Sora
Link > Crono
Mega Man > Snake
Cloud > Sephiroth
Samus > Sonic
Link > Mega Man
Cloud > Samus
Link > Cloud (Finals)

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