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Cb6-09

Results Edit

Round One

Poll2871

Tuesday, September 11th, 2007

Ulti's Analysis Edit

Poll 2871
Division 3
Match # 9
Match Date Tuesday, September 11th, 2007
Oracle
Expectations
Sephiroth - 58.24%
Princess Peach - 17.69%
Meta Knight - 12.32%
CATS - 11.79%
GameFAQs
Expectations
Sephiroth first place (2pts) - 53.03%
Sephiroth second place (1pt) - 40.80%
Meta Knight second place (2pts) - 16.65%
Meta Knight first place (1pt) - 21.37%
Advancing
Prediction
Sephiroth - 93.83% (34,458)
Meta Knight - 38.02% (13,962)

In retrospect, this was a hilarious upset even from my perspective as a Peach fan. The big argument here was whether or not Sephiroth would blow everyone out hard enough for CATS to get second place. CATS gets 11-12% in every poll, and he held serve here. The idea was Peach and Meta Knight would screw each other over, Seph would be too strong and CATS would finally win a match.

"Whoops"

Sephiroth did well, but not godslayer-level well. This forced CATS into last place quite easily, Seph of course was way out in front, and Peach had the lead on second place and would of course stretch it out because who cares about Meta Knight when Brawl wasn't even...

"Wait, what?"

The second update hit, Meta Knight stormed out in front of Peach and would never let up after that, en route to a very easy second place. Fourways are kinda famous for an easy first place, an easy last place and two characters close enough to make second place interesting, but Meta Knight dominated this.

It's easy to blame Brawl for this huge upset, but in a way that was only half true. All we had at that point was a trailer and I think the DOJO! site, and in retrospect it's easy to say that site plus the first month or two after Brawl's release was that game's strongest time. Of course then people realized the game was terrible beyond words, so all the hype and initial soma wore off really quick.

If this were rerun, Peach might actually have a decent chance at second place. Most people in North America prefer Melee, Spam Knight and his Whorenado and his awful game left a bad taste in everyone's mouth, and most importantly Sephiroth is just plain weaker now. He lost to Snake, and could potentially not score 50% in this poll again. Barring the HD Remix treatment, Final Fantasy 7 is slowly going the way of Chrono Trigger on this site.


Stats and Analysis Edit

what a weird, weird match. Peach, maybe the most well-known female video game character in history vs. Meta Knight, known more for his appearance in a trailer than anything else. or so we thought.

I really have no idea what's up with Meta Knight. the argument going into this match was Peach vs. CATS, because CATS always gets about 12% in every poll. if Sephiroth were to dominate this poll as expected, CATS had a chance of winning just because he's guaranteed that 11-12%. and he got it.

the thing is, Sephiroth did a lot worse than most expected, allowing for Peach to blow past CATS in no time at all. Peach came out with her customary awesome board vote - either because she was the obvious bracket vote, or because we suck Nintendo hard here, or who knows why. but she's always done her best at the beginning, and today was no different.

the thing that was surprising everyone is that Meta Knight was not dying off after the board vote. Meta Knight seems like the kind of guy that the early vote would favour, but it was quite the opposite here - as time passed, he was doing better and better. after three minutes he passed CATS, at five minutes he was stalling Peach, and at ten minutes he shot way ahead with a massive 50 vote gain. Meta Knight built up a 300 vote lead fairly quickly but then just stopped - Peach came back a little bit during the dead hours, and then Meta Knight padded his lead slightly during the time people were in school. it seemed logical that Peach would take the day vote - I mean, she's by far the more known quantity here.

Peach has had a pretty mediocre day vote though, kind of like Bowser. she just kinda flops in the day, and Meta Knight started tearing into her. after jumping 300 votes in an hour, this match was over. Peach, a fairly popular round 3 pick, was out, and the character a lot of people thought would finish in a distant 4th ended up with a very surprising, impressive victory.

I still have no idea what to make of Meta Knight. I imagine that with Brawl out, he'll be like Falcon and Marth and all of those - around the fodder line. Peach seems like the kind of character you vote for when you either don't know or don't care about the others though -- who seriously cares about Peach? -- but when there's more options, you're not likely to vote for her. chances are, the format played tricks on her here, and in a straight-up match she'd take Meta Knight.

but who knows?

Match Trends Edit

Graph2871

External Links Edit

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2007 Contest Matches

Round One
Yoshi > Knuckles
Mega Man > KOS-MOS
Samus > Frog
Scorpion > Midna
Marcus > Kefka
Cloud > Ocelot
Auron > Shadow
Ryu > Bowser
Sephiroth > Meta Knight
Fox > Wario
Mario > Big Boss
Magus > Phoenix Wright
Link > Bidoof
Vincent > Zelda
Crono > Raiden

Zero > HK-47
Luigi > Mudkip
Ganondorf > Vergil
Master Chief > Yuna
Liquid Snake > Alucard
Dante > Amaterasu
Ada Wong > Balthier
Pikachu > Tidus
Leon > Vivi
Kirby > L-Block
Kratos > Donkey Kong
Snake > Nightmare
Ryu H > Riku
Squall > Aeris
Sora > Lara
Duke > Gordon
Sonic > Sub-Zero

Round Two
Mega Man > Yoshi
Samus > Scorpion
Cloud > Marcus
Auron > Ryu
Sephiroth > Fox
Mario > Big Boss
Link > Vincent
Crono > Zero
Ganondorf > Luigi
Master Chief > Yuna
Dante > Amaterasu
Leon > Pikachu
Kratos > L-Block
Snake > Riku
Squall > Sora
Sonic > Sub-Zero

R3 and following
Samus > Mega Man
Cloud > Ryu
Sephiroth > Mario
Link > Vincent
Master Chief > Luigi
Pikachu > Dante
Snake > L-Block
Sonic > Squall
Cloud > Samus
Link > Sephiroth
Master Chief > Dante
L-Block > Snake
Link > Cloud
L-Block > Snake
L-Block > Link (Finals)
? Block > L-Block (Bonus)

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