Kirby vs Master Chief vs Big Boss vs Raiden 2008
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Contents |
[edit] Results
[edit] Stats and Analysis
| Round | Division 7 Semi Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 45 |
| Match Date | Saturday, November 1st, 2008 |
| Oracle Expectations | Master Chief - 30.98% Kirby - 27.35% Big Boss - 24.99% Raiden - 16.80% |
| GameFAQs Expectations | Kirby first place (4pts) - 26.78% Kirby second place (2pts) - 27.03% Master Chief second place (4pts) - 37.53% Master Chief first place (2pts) - 42.55% |
| Advancing Prediction | Kirby - 53.81% (23,086) Master Chief - 80.08% (34,357) |
...and for the first time it would matter, he didn't, and it would cost him. The board abandoned the MGS3 protagonist's train as quickly as they had gotten on, as now we were presumably dealing with the entity that had gotten tripled by Auron and needed Mario to beat Pac-Man. There was a good amount of chatter on the old man losing to Raiden, and it wasn't exactly unwarranted - Raiden had gotten the "wow" role of his career in MGS4. The first indication that most people got that Big Boss was even IN the game was the picture in this match. And as weak as he may have been last year in struggling to beat Sam Fisher, that's a far cry from being tripled by Auron.
So when old man Boss started the match ahead of Master Chief, you better believe people took notice. Kirby was WAY out in front, which people were kinda anticipating at this point, but still... Master Chief behind a Big Boss with an old man picture, one that was being held down by Raiden (a Raiden that he was SFFing to death, but c'mon). Chief would break back into the lead based on his impressive bracket support, but Big Boss would not let up. By the night he had taken a decent lead of his own on Chief, and even though Chief would end up shredding that lead in minutes when the day vote hit, it was still a sight to see.
As for the Chief/Kirby showdown, it ended up being the highlight of the match when Chief got going. Kirby was up by an insurmountable lead, but when the day came Chief gave it his all in what was likely his most impressive showing in this contest. Ending up only 1500 votes away from Kirby in a match where the MGS vote would have almost certainly broken his way had BB/Raiden not been there is something. Granted, we had to deal with the fact that Kirby is a bit of a cupcake when he's not standing out, but the fact remains - Chief holdouts had a little more to cling to after this match.
As for Big Boss, he ended up having something more akin to MGS trends of old - running purely off of hardcore fans will do that - but the fact that he did as well as he did with Raiden holding him back was a sign that whether because of MGS4 or people just finally figuring out who the devil the guy is thanks to his Naked Snake pics, the Fox operative has come a long way in these things and clearly established himself as the #2 MGS character. Well done, old soldier. *salutes*
[edit] Match Trends
[edit] Ngamer's Same Day Analysis
[edit] Match Prediction
Another matchup I've got high hopes for takes place tonight. Let's get that hype train a'rollin.
X-Stats from Round One:
- Master Chief - 31.01% (based on Layton = Tom Nook)
- Raiden - 26.98% (based on Layton = Tom Nook)
- Big Boss - 33.77% (based on Jinjo = '07 Banjo)
- Kirby - 29.27% (based on Jinjo = '07 Banjo)
What absolute garbage numers. Since no one out of the Jinjo/Lucas/Kain/Layton group made the bracket in '07 I didn't have any comparisons to make, so bah. Regardless, you can see BB will go down as the strongest character based on results pretty much no matter how you adjust those numbers, and from there it's a mish mash. Raiden at 27 looks so wrong, but how far below 30 would you really be willing to place MC, this format's former stud? But yeah, remove the Nintendo LFF that held Kirby back and it seems clear that Kirby/Naked Snake BB/de-boosted Halo should be right around even in strength, with Raiden not all that far behind.
Unfortunately for the MGS guys, these GameFAQs polls don't take place in a vacuum; the same LFF that has been killing Nintendo while making them look like superstars all year to this point is about to suddenly backfire on them, and its a backfire that will be chalking up two casualties tonight, in my opinion. Big Boss had two chances at advancement: One, get a full on Naked Snake picture. Mission Failed. Two, SFF Raiden into the ground so hard he pushes up dandelions in Australia. Well, this DID seem possible for about 5 minutes, and then Raiden went and put up 43% on MC directly. Uh oh! Mission Failed. Frankly I'm not sold on Raiden's picture either, but without the full on Snake effect I can't see BB topping him by more than 60/40 or so, which means that unless the MGS fanbase became half the site overnight (hello there Ocelot!), they're going to be coming in third and fourth.
That leaves us with MC vs Kirby, and this one could very well end up being quite the entertaining battle. It would be awesome to see Kirby power out to a big lead with his morning vote and hold off MC's ASV for the win, especially for how it would turn all this "lol Nintendo es ded" talk right on its head, but... I'm not quite feeling it. Yes, Kirby will be the one standing out against all these mature PS2/Xbox options, but on the other hand all of the Contest elites have been recovering from their bad R1 showings here in this round, and Cloud today is just one more example. Yes MC's performance was the most disappointing of all of them, but even so I'm imagining he'll be able to score just enough of a comeback to save his reputation and sneak this one out in the after school period.
But feel free to go ahead and prove me wrong, Kirby old pal. Okay, MC ~= Kirby with a decent gap before BB and Raiden, that ought to give us results somewhat along the lines off... *pots and stirs and delivers*
- Master Chief - 30.18%
- Kirby - 29.75%
- Big Boss - 22.40%
- Raiden - 17.67%
Hm... crazy as it sounds, I'm actually feeling pretty confident with those numbers! (Now watch them get blown to high heaven.)
Ngamer Says: MC > Kirby
[edit] Next Day Review
Haha, what a fun match that was! Sure, it lost some of its luster due to Kirby never being in any real danger of losing to MC, and even when Boss had opened up that nice lead we were still very confident that Chief would be killing him in the Day to make up for it, but even so I maintain that this was a highly entertaining poll. I mean, just check out those vote trends! *points to graph above*
Note to self: Europeans really loved MGS4, and really, really dislike Halo. I could see that little tidbit coming in handy for the upcoming Game Contest! (Actually I think it's more a case that Europe will go crazy for anything recent and Sony, like how FFX and now MGS always pounds people during those hours, while they refuse to support anything Xbox, which explains why guys like MC and Marcus last year are able to put on such amazing fireworks displays as soon as that continent falls asleep and it's back to 100% American voting.)
Okay, well this sets up a HECK of an interesting proposal for Round Three. MC's so weak that he's no longer assured third place in that pack, let alone first, while Kirby will once again be getting the full advantage of going cutesy against three mature action stars. Unless Leon hurts him with GameCube appeal he ought to be able to survive and advance out of that match... but wait, will Riku be the one there instead, evening the mature versus cutesy appeal at 2 to 2?
