Link vs Vincent vs Crono vs Zero 2007
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Contents |
[edit] Results
[edit] Stats and Analysis
| Round | Division 4 Final |
|---|---|
| Match # | 52 |
| Match Date | Wednesday, October 24th, 2007 |
| Oracle Expectations | Link - 42.59% Vincent - 20.93% Crono - 20.91% Zero - 15.55% |
| GameFAQs Expectations | Link first place (8pts) - 81.52% Link second place (4pts) - 5.77% Vincent second place (8pts) - 5.64% Vincent first place (4pts) - 5.30% |
| Advancing Prediction | Link - 87.29% (32,056) Vincent - 10.94% (4,018) |
- Vincent advancing was the #7 most surprising result of 2007
you could argue that the first six weeks of this contest were nothing more than buildup for this match -- arguably the single most anticipated match of the contest before L-Block went silly. every match was compared to what it meant for this one. Frog disappointment? Crono's screwed! Aeris sucking? Vincent's screwed! Cloud does well? aw yeah Vince! the hype leading up to this match was so overwhelming that by the time you got to the match, it was almost anti-climactic.
Vincent had every conceivable advantage walking into this match. Link and Crono are practically the same character, on the same system, and Zero made for a third SNES character thrown into the mix. Vincent is a fan-favourite - Crono not so much. Crono is aging fast, while Vincent seems to be getting more popular if anything. by match time, Vincent was the favourite, and I'm pretty sure I was the only one that sided with Crono in the Analysis Crew. most of the other Crono supporters were, for lack of a better word, CT fanboys.
the opening to this match hit people like a ton of bricks. Crono opened the match tied with Link, and Vincent was closer to Zero than Crono. the overreaction was priceless, especially from people who hadn't defended Crono at all:
XxSoulxX: Gotta ask... Why was so many people so convinced in Vincent beating Crono anyway?
Karma Hunter: Wow, can't see this one being ANYTHING but over. Noble Nine wins again.
Master Moltar: Link rising to heaven, Vincent... eh, ova
The n00b Avenger: Ok, Link kicking ass, Vincent screwed. Next match
thengamer.com/stats/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt501-550/Stats%20and%20Discussion%20Pt530 -- a funny topic.
I actually called people on this -- despite picking Crono/cheering for Crono! -- and got nothing but laughter back. this was over. Crono took a 149 vote lead after five minutes, added 90 in the next update, and was up 429 votes in 30 minutes. for anyone else, this was over. Noble Nine preserved, a huge bandwagon crushed, all that.
but this was Crono. he's more Phoenix Wright than anything these days, and it's kind of sad to watch a classic fall from grace like this. Crono pushed his lead out to 1000 votes in two hours, but then he just stopped. by 5am he was losing votes. at 10am we had a dead tie, and from there it was over. it wasn't interesting, it was just another depressing result from a guy who just couldn't keep it up for 24 hours anymore. it was a mirror result to Crono/Sonic, another match people called en masse when everyone should have known better.
the end result was one of the more painful sights I can remember on board 8 - a board-wide explosion over "the noble nine". most stats topic vets didn't really care, as we had expected this for a while, but the rest of the board was obsessed with it. is it over, isn't it over, a ton of arguments over why, what is the noble nine, why do you all care so much, etc. it was really ugly.
my opinion on the matter was that, well, it didn't really matter either way, but I'd be hesitant to say Vincent automatically wins one-on-one. fortunately, an L-Block came along and showed us that this format is utter BS and that we can't really say anything definitively, and that whole argument ended up being meaningless. :)
[edit] Match Trends
[edit] Ed Bellis' Analysis
In just two years Crono had gone from being Mario’s equal and potentially stronger than Samus to being the low rung on the Noble Nine ladder. Vincent > Crono was a tantalizing upset for those brave enough to jump aboard, and their diligence was rewarded with this match, which saw an actually thrilling close race for second place between Crono and Vincent that was difficult to call until the last few hours. Crono started off with a decent lead, but Vincent came back with the afterschool vote (if memory serves me right) and though the two remained relatively close, Vincent had done the seemingly unthinkable and ousted a member of the Noble Nine.
Of course, for as much attention as I’ve given the term, “Noble Nine” really ain’t all it’s cracked up to be and existed originally as a blanket term for the eight strongest characters (who were coincidentally the Elite Eight of the 2003 contest) and Crono, who was Mario’s equal. There’s no substitution or anything like that. Whether or not you think the term matters, this match was both a big milestone and a good slugfest to boot.
[edit] External Links
- Match Updates
- Guru Match Predictions
- Oracle Match Results
- Vincent's win caused quite the uproar on B8
