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Most Unpredictable Contests

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Lblock2007

L-Block's miracle run helped make Characters 2007 the Most Unpredictable Contest in history

The Most Unpredictable Contests in GameFAQs Contest history, based on each season's average "casual" prediction percentage (aka the average % of brackets site-wide who predicted each match correctly). This article also covers which seasons the Contest Gurus had the most trouble predicting, so you can make a comparison between the casuals and the "experts."

Special Note: The Guru Contest was not formed until the Spring of 2004, so no Summer 2002 or Summer 2003 matches are eligible for the Guru listing. Additionally, these results are not limited to 1v1 main-bracket matches; 2005's Tournament of Champions, 2006's Battle Royale, and the four-way battles of Summer 2007/2008 are also factored in. For '07 and '08, percentages are based on how many brackets had a character advancing in either position, so for example if 180 out of 183 picked Link to take first and 3 took him to place second, Link gets credit for 100% confidence in that matchup.

See Also Edit

Most Unpredictable Contests of All-Time Edit

Through 10 Contests, the average site-wide prediction percentage is 64.81%.

  1. Characters '07 - 59.64%
  2. Characters '08 - 60.11%
  3. Characters '06 - 62.34%
  4. Characters '02 - 63.50%
  5. Characters '05 - 63.54%
  6. Characters '03 - 63.61%
  7. Games '04 - 66.25%
  8. Villains '05 - 67.60%
  9. Characters '04 - 69.97%
  10. Series '06 - 71.50%

The Gurus' Most Unpredictable Contests of All-Time Edit

Through 8 Contests, the Gurus' average prediction percentage is 83.70%. The site-wide average during this same span is 65.12%.

  1. Characters '07 - 76.71%
  2. Characters '08 - 78.62%
  3. Characters '06 - 82.84%
  4. Characters '05 - 83.05%
  5. Villains '05 - 84.44%
  6. Games '04 - 85.56%
  7. Series '06 - 86.86%
  8. Characters '04 - 91.53%

Most Unpredictable Contests By Average Score Edit

Another way to judge how difficult a bracket was is to see how well the average predictor was able to finish in terms of total score for the year. As there have been a number of different scoring systems over the years, the "most fair" way to compare between seasons is to find what percentage of the max possible points each year's average score was worth.

Lowest Average Point Totals- Sitewide Edit

  1. Characters '07 - 35.81% (275 pts, max 768)
  2. Characters '08 - 38.67% (297 pts, max 768)
  3. Characters '03 - 43.75% (84 pts, max 192)
  4. Characters '06 - 43.75% (105 pts, max 240)
  5. Characters '02 - 44.79% (86 pts, max 192)
  6. Characters '05 - 48.61% (105 pts, max 216)
  7. Games '04 - 50.52% (97 pts, max 192)
  8. Characters '04 - 60.42% (116 pts, max 192)
  9. Series '06 - 63.75% (51 pts, max 80)
  10. Villains '05 - 68.75% (55 pts, max 80)

Lowest Average Point Totals- Gurus Edit

  1. Characters '07 - 58.85% (452 pts, max 768)
  2. Characters '08 - 65.23% (501 pts, max 768)
  3. Characters '05 - 68.98% (149 pts, max 216)
  4. Characters '06 - 70.00% (168 pts, max 240)
  5. Games '04 - 74.48% (143 pts, max 192)
  6. Series '06 - 77.50% (62 pts, max 80)
  7. Characters '04 - 83.85% (161 pts, max 192)
  8. Villains '05 - 90.00% (72 pts, max 80)

External Links Edit

  • The Contest Archive - the "AllStats.xls" spreadsheet contains complete data on every match
  • gfcontests.com - full prediction percentage breakdowns from every Contest

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