Results[]
Ulti's Analysis[]
| Division | 1998-2000 |
|---|---|
| Match # | 17 |
| Match Date | Thursday, April 23rd, 2009 |
| Oracle Expectations |
Zelda: Majora's Mask - 38.77% Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 32.83% Perfect Dark - 18.21% Banjo Kazooie - 10.13% |
| GameFAQs Expectations |
Pokemon RBY first place (2pts) - 55.44% Pokemon RBY second place (1pt) - 26.07% Zelda:MM second place (2pts) - 44.07% Zelda:MM first place (1pt) - 23.27% |
| Advancing Prediction |
Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 81.51% (31,215) Majora's Mask - 67.34% (25,789) |
Banjo-Kazooie and Perfect Dark both bombed here, but this wasn't as extreme as some other bombings this contest. It was fairly expected given all the Nintendo and N64 overlap, though B-K was another games hyped for years and Perfect Dark completely collapsed based on its 2004 performance. But we'll just chalk that up to N64 LFF and move on.
And by moving on, we look at Pokemon RBY's start of balling all over this contest. I personally think Majora's Mask was another of the many sickeningly overhyped games in this contest, but all things considered it didn't do that bad. A lot of people crushed it given they assumed it would easily make the second round, and in the first round it could somewhat fairly be called a bomb. Majora's Mask was the Raiden of this contest -- huge potential, but the reality was nothing close.
This said, it still got an acceptable 29% second place finish, but simply ran into an absolute monster here. In a match that was expected to be close, RBY just flattened everything and propped itself right into contender for Top 10 status. There was a very set top 8 or 9 after 2004, this contest threw a big wrench into all that, and a lot of games even ended up with legit claims to "#3" status. After this very match, Pokemon RBY was one of those games. Majora's Mask might not be a top tier Zelda, but it's a Zelda nonetheless. And blowing the hell out of Zelda is no easy task. Pokemon would go on to more than prove this was no Nintendo SFF fluke either, but more on that in future rounds.
On a complete side note, I argued for years that Pokemon RBY was legit, and had to argue even harder pre-contest when everyone assumed Majora's Mask would kill it before the second round LFFd it to death.
Look at this poll.
Could it be more obvious? Everyone and their mother loved RBY; the hate started with cards and the million generations following RBY, not with RBY itself. RBY was always bound to be a beast, and it ended up being even stronger than I thought. Granted I'm a total FFT fanboy and picked it to beat RBY in round 2, but I was still right about RBY being legit. No harm done <_<
Match Trends[]
Ngamer's Same Day Analysis[]
Match Prediction[]
Moving on to one of the best 1v1s of the whole round! First though let me say what a pleasure it is to see the Crew having such nice things to say (and generous predictions to make) regarding my favorite game, Perfect Dark. I didn't rally for it this year in favor of trying to help GE into a good seed just because Bond has so much more potential, and its too bad we couldn't have seen a mixed bracket where a beloved game like PD would have had a chance to slide past some outdated older games, but its nice to see it represented in any case. And wow, what a great match pic!
Enough of the mushy stuff, let's move on to what will hopefully be an exciting battle. In my bracket I took R/B/Y for the win here on the basis of MM having to share the poll with two other highly regarded N64 titles (plus the STF of being the only RPG), Pokemon being well suited to this format, and nostalgia. Partly though I just took it because it was a safe pick considering that MM is sure to force its way back on top in R2 (when Red will be losing the RPG sore thumb advantage for sure, and might even be decimated by having to split with another Pokemon!). So, I went with the upset, but without any kind of confidence. Then after LA scored a very easy win over MMX I gave up on this pick entirely- if a 4th tier Zelda can put on a show like that, surely a 3rd tier game like MM was a lock for the win.
HOWEVER, then yesterday poped out of the clouds like a ray of sunshine for my bracket. Mario had been smoking the competition right and left, so a Mario game against three SNES RPGs was a sure formula for a franchise vote'd overperformance, right? Wrong! Maybe the voters aren't as sheepish as we often think, and R/B/Y is certainly a well loved 90s RPG with tons of nostalgia behind it... if Chrono Trigger can blast Mario, surely Pokemon can at least keep it close! What pushed me over the edge was that match pic- probably 3 of the 5 most popular Pokemon of all time up against a big purple eye and one of Link's least popular forms? This could really happen!
*pulls the trigger*
- Pokemon Red/Blue/Yellow - 35.90%
- Zelda: Majora's Mask - 35.64%
- Perfect Dark - 20.44%
- Banjo-Kazooie - 8.02%
Whooooo!
Next Day Review[]
Good gracious, I haven't been this shocked by a match result since... well I guess you could say Snake > Cloud and Kirby > Sonic, but those were weird L-Blockish bandwagon kind of results that you have to just shake your head at and move on from. This appears to be a completely legit result, considering how R/B/Y is beating three of the N64's best games combined literally all by itself, and has done so with an incredibly consistent performance throughout the day. After a powerhouse Top Ten-level showing like this you'd have to make the game a lock to slide through into Round Three... but wait a minute, will there be another Pokemon option there to hinder its progress? Let's find out!