| Daily Vote Trends
Daily Vote Trends are a way of understanding why some GameFAQs Contest entrants can be very strong during one period of the day but very weak during a different time.
Yearly Vote Trend Breakdowns Edit
The Daily Trends Edit
Note: as all polls have started at midnight EST from 2005 onwards, all times in this article will be in 24 hour EST format. So 0:00 = midnight, 13:00 = 1pm, and so forth.
EBV - Early Board Vote (0:00 to 0:05) Edit
see the main EBV article for more information
The EBV can also stand for "Early Bracket Vote", because those refreshing the homepage and voting in the opening minutes of a poll are often doing so to support their bracket. Due to this group, many times the bracket favorite will start strong before falling off the map (see Squall vs Luigi 2003).
PHV - Power Hour Vote (0:00 to 1:00) Edit
see the main PHV article for more information
The first hour of a poll is traditionally called the Nintendo Power Hour, though some argue it could more accurately be titled the Old School Power Hour. Entrants with strong appeal to the older generation of gamers generally perform at their peak during this time, for instance Mega Man, Mario, and all things Chrono Trigger.
FNV - First Night Vote (1:00 to 6:00ish) Edit
see the main FNV article for more information
From 60 minutes into a poll until the sun rises on the East Coast is the period known as the First Night Vote (or Overnight Vote). The FNV makes up the first 1/2 of the overall Night Vote. Trends often differ drastically versus those of the PHV and upcoming Day Vote; typically Nintendo will drop to its lowest percentage of the day during this time while more mature series like Metal Gear Solid and Final Fantasy X will look their best.
The second half of the FNV is sometimes called the European Vote or The Dead Hours - as most Americans are in bed by 3 or 4am, vote intake drops to its lowest point of the day and Europeans just waking up dominate the trends for this period. The most notable change during this time is a massive shift away from series that have not been well represented in Europe, such as Chrono Trigger.
BSV - Before School Vote (6:00ish to 9:00ish) Edit
see the main BSV article for more information
The period of roughly three hours after daybreak on the East Coast is known as the Before School Vote, or more generally, the Morning Vote. The BSV makes up the first 1/3 of the overall Day Vote. Characters that appeal to younger voters often do very well during this time; traditionally this is a period where Nintendo finally stops the bleeding from the overnight and often rebounds with some of its strongest gains of the day. However the most noticeable BSV performer is most likely Sonic Team, as Sega's flagship series often sees a major boost during these hours thanks to its strong appeal with both younger American voters and Europe in general.
DSV - During School Vote (9:00ish to 14:30ish) Edit
see the main DSV article for more information
The hours while school is in session on the East Coast are known as the During School Vote. The DSV is the central 1/3 of the Day Vote, but often differs drastically from the two time periods that bookend it. In truth the trends during this period more often mimic those of the Overnight Vote than they do the BSV or ASV, with Nintendo and Sega generally taking a step back while more mature series get a second wind.
ASV - After School Vote (14:30ish to 22:00ish) Edit
see the main ASV article for more information
The six to seven hours after schools start to let out are known as the After School Vote, and makes up the final 1/3 of the Day Vote. This is in many ways the most crucial time period during a match, as vote intake rises to its peak and the trends established in this opening half hour sometimes hold until only two or three hours of voting remain. In most cases the ASV trends will mirror what was seen during the BSV, except with increased intensity and force. Although Nintendo generally does well during this time (in particular Super Smash Bros.), the most dominating ASV forces have traditionally been all things Kingdom Hearts and all things Xbox (especially Halo and Master Chief).
SNV - Second Night Vote (22:00ish to 24:00) Edit
see the main SNV article for more information
The final two to three hours of a poll are known as the Second Night Vote, which makes up the final 1/2 of the overall Night Vote. Although the general trend is for this period to mimic the Overnight Vote, it usually does so with considerably less intensity and predictability due to a number of factors. The first is that the ASV trends (which are often a polar opposite) will many times bleed over into the early part of the SNV. The second is that vote intake declines severely versus the ASV boom, particularly in the last 60 minutes. The third is that the SNV is dominated heavily by North America, with Europe mostly asleep by this time. Compare that to the FNV where the trends are dominated by Europe and Asia, with North America mostly asleep. And the fourth factor is that, in the case of close matches, Board 8 will sometimes smell blood in the water and reassert itself in the form of a rallied "Second Board Vote" in order to help out their favored entrant. See Mario vs Crono 2003 or nearly any close matchup involving Frog or Metal Gear Solid for more on this controversial subject.
Non-School Time Trends Edit
On weekends, during the Summer, and on holidays, voting trends differ as a result of no one going to school. That being said, the general trends still hold for the most part, with a few minor exceptions:
- the PHV may extend slightly longer as voters are staying up later
- voters sleep in longer, pushing the BSV back somewhat and more or less causing it to merge with the ASV
- the combined BSV/ASV is very powerful, but comes to a close somewhat sooner (since no one had to wait until 3pm for school to end) allowing the DSV/SNV to have an increased impact in the final hours of a poll
12-Hour Poll Trends Edit
With the debut of 12-hour matches for Character Battle 2010, these 12-hour matches have some unique trends exclusive to the 12-hour format. These 12-hour matches are referred to as "Night Matches" and "Day Matches" based on when the match starts. Night Matches start at 12:00 AM EST, while Day Matches start at 12:00 PM EST.
The board vote and Power Hour between night and day matches is pretty much identical. Characters with a strong Power Hour in night matches will have a strong Power Hour in a day match. Characters like Cloud, Sephiroth, and Squall who are heavily anti-voted at the start of a 24-hour match still get heavily anti-voted at the start of a day match. It's still very much possible for the board to rally their favored entrant at the end of a 12-hour match, whether it's a night match or day match.
Trends unique to Night Matches Edit
In these matches, the FNV takes up almost half of the match's total length, making the FNV more important compared to 24-hour matches. Characters known for their strong night vote become more dangerous in night matches, most notably Final Fantasy and Square characters. A character with a strong ASV is put at a disadvantage in a night match, especially when they are facing someone with a strong night vote. Characters with a strong ASV are unable to take advantage of the ASV in a night match, unless of course the match is on the weekend. Weekend night matches do have ASV trends in the morning, but these trends are only in effect for the last 3 to 4 hours of the match. Night matches are heavily dominated by Europe, Asia, and Oceania, so the results of the match are more reflective of their voting preferences. Average vote distribution by region for Character Battle 2010:
North America - 70.56% / South America - 2.35% / Europe - 18.30% / Asia - 5.12% / Oceania - 3.53% / Africa - 0.14%
Trends unique to Day Matches Edit
Like with night matches, some characters will struggle in day matches while characters with a strong ASV become more dangerous. Characters with a strong night vote will almost certainly struggle in a day match and be put at a disadvantage when facing someone with a strong ASV. During the weekday, the match starts in the middle of the DSV, so there's less than 2 hours of DSV trends once the Power Hour wears off. Characters who are weak in day matches often need to take advantage of the DSV at the start of the match to build up a lead to survive the ASV. In day matches, ASV trends are diluted because voters from the night match are able to vote in the day match. Regardless, ASV trends still exist in day matches. On the weekend, trends are even more diluted than usual, often producing stable hourly trends over the course of the day.
Day matches are heavily dominated by North America, with less voting from Europe and drastically reduced levels of voting from Asia and Oceania. The final results of the match are more reflective of North America's voting preferences, as Europe, Asia, and Oceania have less influence in the match. Average vote distribution by region for Character Battle 2010:
North America - 81.28% / South America - 2.82% / Europe - 12.20% / Asia - 1.87% / Oceania - 1.75% / Africa - 0.08%
Vote Trends - The PotD Edit
When do you usually answer the Poll of the Day?
As soon as it is updated 14.3% 10989
When I wake up in the morning 20.01% 15378
During a break at work or school 15.86% 12189
After I get off of work or school 38.92% 29906
Just before I go to bed 10.9% 8376
TOTAL VOTES 76838
As expected, the After-School Vote was the runaway winner, nearly doubling the popularity of the next closest voting block. Also as expected, each option performed best during its own time period, including the early vote jumping out to a huge lead before being passed up by the before school vote and eventually the ASV. The only time to never win an update was the during school vote, which performed okay but was squeezed too hard by the BSV on one side and ASV on the other to ever sneak out a win.
Time | ---EV--- | --BSV-- | --DSV-- | ---ASV--- | ---NV---
PHV | 37.03% | 11.54% | 10.85% | 21.14% | 19.44% | (0:00-1:00)
FNV | 24.05% | 20.42% | 13.11% | 22.00% | 20.42% | (1:00-6:00)
BSV | 07.98% | 47.75% | 16.30% | 23.26% | 04.71% | (6:00-9:00)
DSV | 09.22% | 28.51% | 24.63% | 32.83% | 04.81% | (9:00-14:30)
ASV | 08.97% | 09.49% | 13.01% | 60.56% | 07.96% | (14:30-22:00)
SNV | 12.76% | 07.84% | 13.53% | 42.17% | 23.70% | (22:00-24:00)
The power hour is dominated by the Early Vote. The Early Vote stays strong through the first night vote. The Night Vote actually didn't get second place during the first night vote. The After School Vote managed to out-night vote the night vote. The Before School Vote was dominated by Before School voting. The Early Voters and Night Voters had all but died at this point. The During School vote did it's best during school but it was outdone by the fading Before School vote and the growing After School Vote. ASV was pulling in 60% updates in a 5 way match after school ended. It managed to break 70% at times. Complete domination. The Early Vote actually started to come back a bit during the Second Night Vote most likely due to early voters preparing for the next poll. The Before School vote was pretty much dead at this point. The Night Vote did better during the second night vote but still couldn't compared to the fading After School Vote. The Night Vote did manage to win the last 5 minute update of the match.
External Links Edit
Vote Trend Fads Edit
One of the earliest fads in Board 8 history was the phrase "just wait until the kiddies wake up!", which was originally used when Spyro the Dragon fell behind Morrigan in the second match in Contest history back in 2002. The saying continued to be used for years afterwards, despite that fact that the so-called "kiddies" never did wake up, for Spyro or any other character. Oddly enough it wasn't until the ASV domination of Kingdom Hearts post-2004 that the younger voters had any serious impact on vote trends, and even then it wasn't when there were waking up that mattered but rather when they were getting home from school!